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Bechem United vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
1 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
H. Konkoni 90'
B. Acquah 45+2'
3/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bechem United56%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.43
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.63

Bechem United creates 127% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.85

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
84%
Bechem United or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
44%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
76%
Bechem United 2+ goals
42%
Bechem United 3+ goals
17%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
47%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
13%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
78%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.85 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bechem United scores more
56%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
16%

Bechem United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
B. Acquah
90'
H. Konkoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bechem United 1–1 Ebusua Dwarfs

Bechem United and Ebusua Dwarfs drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 7, 2021.

Goals: B. Acquah (45+2'), H. Konkoni (90').

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.