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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
S. Martey 78'
6/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs46%
×Draw28%
Aduana Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.33
Aduana Stars
0.92

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.41
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.09
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
74%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Aduana Stars
72%
Draw or Aduana Stars
54%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
22%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
74%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
38%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
15%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
60%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
23%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
64%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.41 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
46%
level
28%
Aduana Stars scores more
26%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
63'
78'
S. Martey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 1–0 Aduana Stars

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Aduana Stars 1-0 in Premier League on June 6, 2021.

Goals: S. Martey (78').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.