Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aduana Stars vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
2 – 2
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
S. Adams 75'
M. Yahaya 45' (pen)
M. Sumaila 81'
I. Kwain 30' (OG)
1/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aduana Stars55%
×Draw26%
Ebusua Dwarfs18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.48
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.72

Aduana Stars creates 106% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.85

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
82%
Aduana Stars or Ebusua Dwarfs
74%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
45%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
77%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
43%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
19%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
51%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
16%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.85 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
55%
level
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
18%

Aduana Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
I. KwainOwn goal
45'
M. YahayaPenalty
75'
S. Adams
81'
M. Sumaila
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 2–2 Ebusua Dwarfs

Aduana Stars and Ebusua Dwarfs drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 31, 2021.

Goals: I. Kwain (30' o.g.), M. Yahaya (45' pen), S. Adams (75'), M. Sumaila (81').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.