Ebro 0–2 Arenas Getxo: Result & Stats

Ebro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arenas Getxo

Álex Altube 50'

Manel Royo 23' (OG)

4/11/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Pedro Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ebro41%

×Draw29%

Arenas Getxo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EbroExpected goals in this matchArenas Getxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Ebro

1.21

Arenas Getxo

1.00

Ebro creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ebro

1.15

Arenas Getxo

1.00

allows per match

Ebro

1.00

Arenas Getxo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Arenas Getxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ebro or draw

70%

Ebro or Arenas Getxo

71%

Draw or Arenas Getxo

59%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+

18%

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals

70%

Ebro 2+ goals

34%

Ebro 3+ goals

12%

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

63%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

26%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)

57%

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.15 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Ebro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ebro scores more

41%

level

29%

Arenas Getxo scores more

30%

Ebro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Jon Vega← Murua

23'

Manel RoyoOwn goal

50'

Álex Altube

57'

Álvaro Sánchez← Jairo Morillas

57'

Carri← Carlos de Lerma

57'

Dani Palomares← Xiker Ozerinjauregi

62'

Gorka Estrada← Álex Altube

63'

Gorka Luariz← Jurgi Oteo

71'

Gabilondo← Rafa Villanueva

Ebro

Arenas

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manolo Sanlúcar

57'▲Álvaro Sánchez←▼Jairo Morillas

57'▲Carri←▼Carlos de Lerma

57'▲Dani Palomares←▼Xiker Ozerinjauregi

Ebro substitutes

SánchezCarriPalomaresLoscosGarcíaUcheParejoCharlez

Manager: Olaizola

17'▲Jon Vega←▼Murua

62'▲Gorka Estrada←▼Álex Altube

63'▲Gorka Luariz←▼Jurgi Oteo

71'▲Gabilondo←▼Rafa Villanueva

Arenas Getxo substitutes

VegaEstradaLuarizGabilondoAtangana