Arenas Getxo 0–0 Ebro: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ebro

5/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Arenas Getxo38%

×Draw32%

Ebro30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchEbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.86

Arenas Getxo

1.00

Ebro

0.86

Arenas Getxo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

0.85

creates per match

0.69

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

0.85

Ebro

0.69

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.04

Ebro

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Ebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

70%

Arenas Getxo or Ebro

68%

Draw or Ebro

62%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

14%

Ebro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

63%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

26%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

8%

Ebro 1+ goals

58%

Ebro 2+ goals

21%

Ebro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

56%

Ebro (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Ebro away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Ebro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ebro attack 0.69 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

38%

level

32%

Ebro scores more

30%

Arenas Getxo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff