EBK 2–2 Tampere United: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

EBK

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Tampere United

5/13/2026

Suomen Cup · Round of 32Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EBK22%

×Draw17%

Tampere United62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EBKExpected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

3.10

EBK

1.85

Tampere United

3.10

Tampere United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.71

creates per match

4.33

1.86

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

EBK

3.71

Tampere United

4.33

allows per match

EBK

1.86

Tampere United

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EBK+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EBK ↓

Tampere United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

EBK or draw

38%

EBK or Tampere United

83%

Draw or Tampere United

78%

Winning margin

EBK wins by 2+

10%

Tampere United wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

EBK 1+ goals

84%

EBK 2+ goals

55%

EBK 3+ goals

28%

Tampere United 1+ goals

95%

Tampere United 2+ goals

81%

Tampere United 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

EBK (draw refunded)

26%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EBK at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Tampere United away — creates 4.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EBK attack 3.71 + Tampere United defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tampere United attack 4.33 + EBK defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

EBK scores more

22%

level

17%

Tampere United scores more

62%

Tampere United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff