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EBK vs Tampere United — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

EBK
EBK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tampere United
Tampere United
5/29/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 10Keski-Espoon Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

EBK38%
×Draw22%
Tampere United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EBK
1.81
Tampere United
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

EBK
1.56
Tampere United
1.55

allows per match

EBK
2.19
Tampere United
2.07

finishing

EBK+0.00on par
Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EBK ↓

Tampere United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

EBK or draw
60%
EBK or Tampere United
78%
Draw or Tampere United
62%

Winning margin

EBK wins by 2+
20%
Tampere United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

EBK 1+ goals
84%
EBK 2+ goals
54%
EBK 3+ goals
27%
Tampere United 1+ goals
85%
Tampere United 2+ goals
56%
Tampere United 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

EBK (draw refunded)
48%
Tampere United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EBK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Tampere United away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EBK attack 1.56 + Tampere United defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tampere United attack 1.55 + EBK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

EBK scores more
38%
level
22%
Tampere United scores more
40%

Tampere United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EBK vs Tampere United

Tampere United beat EBK 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Keski-Espoon Urheilupuisto in Esbo.