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EB / Streymur II vs B68 II — 1. Deild 2019

EB / Streymur II
EB / Streymur II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
B68 II
B68 II
4/6/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 5Við Margáir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

EB / Streymur II50%
×Draw21%
B68 II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EB / Streymur II
2.22
B68 II
1.68

EB / Streymur II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 13 away

creates per match

EB / Streymur II
1.21
B68 II
0.62

allows per match

EB / Streymur II
2.74
B68 II
3.23

finishing

EB / Streymur II+0.00on par
B68 II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EB / Streymur II ↓

B68 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

EB / Streymur II or draw
70%
EB / Streymur II or B68 II
79%
Draw or B68 II
50%

Winning margin

EB / Streymur II wins by 2+
30%
B68 II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EB / Streymur II 1+ goals
89%
EB / Streymur II 2+ goals
65%
EB / Streymur II 3+ goals
38%
B68 II 1+ goals
81%
B68 II 2+ goals
50%
B68 II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

EB / Streymur II (draw refunded)
63%
B68 II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EB / Streymur II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.74 · 61 matches

B68 II away — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EB / Streymur II attack 1.21 + B68 II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.22

B68 II attack 0.62 + EB / Streymur II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EB / Streymur II scores more
50%
level
21%
B68 II scores more
30%

EB / Streymur II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EB / Streymur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: EB / Streymur II 1–2 B68 II

B68 II beat EB / Streymur II 2-1 in 1. Deild on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Við Margáir in Streymnes, Streymoy.