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B68 II vs EB / Streymur II — 1. Deild 2019

B68 II
B68 II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 4 – 1
EB / Streymur II
EB / Streymur II
8/4/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 17Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II48%
×Draw20%
EB / Streymur II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68 II
2.40
EB / Streymur II
1.96

B68 II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 63 away

creates per match

B68 II
1.29
EB / Streymur II
1.05

allows per match

B68 II
2.86
EB / Streymur II
3.51

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par
EB / Streymur II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

EB / Streymur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

B68 II or draw
68%
B68 II or EB / Streymur II
80%
Draw or EB / Streymur II
52%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+
29%
EB / Streymur II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals
91%
B68 II 2+ goals
69%
B68 II 3+ goals
42%
EB / Streymur II 1+ goals
86%
EB / Streymur II 2+ goals
58%
EB / Streymur II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)
60%
EB / Streymur II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

EB / Streymur II away — creates 1.05, concedes 3.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + EB / Streymur II defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.40

EB / Streymur II attack 1.05 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

B68 II scores more
48%
level
20%
EB / Streymur II scores more
32%

B68 II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "B68 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: B68 II 5–3 EB / Streymur II

B68 II beat EB / Streymur II 5-3 in 1. Deild on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.