Eastern United 1–3 Adelaide Hills Hawks

Eastern United

FT

1 – 3

Adelaide Hills Hawks

9/8/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Steve Woodcock Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Eastern United46%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Hills Hawks31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern UnitedExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Hills Hawks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.41

Eastern United

1.77

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.41

Eastern United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.81

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Eastern United

1.31

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.00

allows per match

Eastern United

1.81

Adelaide Hills Hawks

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw

69%

Eastern United or Adelaide Hills Hawks

77%

Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks

54%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+

25%

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals

83%

Eastern United 2+ goals

53%

Eastern United 3+ goals

26%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals

76%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals

41%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)

60%

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eastern United scores more

46%

level

23%

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more

31%

Eastern United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eastern United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff