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Adelaide Hills Hawks vs Eastern United — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
1 – 2
Eastern United
Eastern United
5/24/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 9Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks44%
×Draw23%
Eastern United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.76
Eastern United
1.50

Adelaide Hills Hawks creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 41 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
Eastern United
1.15

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
Eastern United
2.34

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
Eastern United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

Eastern United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
67%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or Eastern United
77%
Draw or Eastern United
56%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
23%
Eastern United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
26%
Eastern United 1+ goals
78%
Eastern United 2+ goals
44%
Eastern United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
57%
Eastern United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Eastern United away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + Eastern United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.76

Eastern United attack 1.15 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
44%
level
23%
Eastern United scores more
33%

Adelaide Hills Hawks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide Hills Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Hills Hawks 1–2 Eastern United

Eastern United beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 24, 2022.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.