Eastern Suburbs 5–2 Capalaba: Result & Stats

Eastern Suburbs

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Capalaba

5/25/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 12Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eastern Suburbs56%

×Draw19%

Capalaba25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern SuburbsExpected goals in this matchCapalaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.71

Eastern Suburbs

2.59

Capalaba

1.71

Eastern Suburbs creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

2.92

creates per match

1.74

1.67

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs

2.92

Capalaba

1.74

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs

1.67

Capalaba

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Capalaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw

75%

Eastern Suburbs or Capalaba

81%

Draw or Capalaba

44%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

36%

Capalaba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

92%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

73%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

47%

Capalaba 1+ goals

82%

Capalaba 2+ goals

51%

Capalaba 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

69%

Capalaba (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.92 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.59

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more

56%

level

19%

Capalaba scores more

25%

Eastern Suburbs at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff