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Capalaba vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland NPL 2026

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
6/26/2022Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 15Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Capalaba34%
×Draw20%
Eastern Suburbs46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
1.91
Eastern Suburbs
2.22

Eastern Suburbs creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 82 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.53
Eastern Suburbs
1.77

allows per match

Capalaba
2.67
Eastern Suburbs
2.29

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
54%
Capalaba or Eastern Suburbs
80%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
66%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
18%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
85%
Capalaba 2+ goals
57%
Capalaba 3+ goals
30%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
89%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
65%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
43%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.67 · 36 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.53 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Capalaba defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Capalaba scores more
34%
level
20%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
46%

Eastern Suburbs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capalaba vs Eastern Suburbs

Eastern Suburbs beat Capalaba 3-1 in Queensland NPL on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Max Haynes Field in Redland.