Eastern Suburbs 2–1 Brisbane Strikers

Eastern Suburbs

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brisbane Strikers

8/31/2024

Queensland Premier League · Semi-finalsHeath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eastern Suburbs47%

×Draw20%

Brisbane Strikers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern SuburbsExpected goals in this matchBrisbane Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.98

Eastern Suburbs

2.37

Brisbane Strikers

1.98

Eastern Suburbs creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 55 away

2.92

creates per match

2.29

1.67

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs

2.92

Brisbane Strikers

2.29

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs

1.67

Brisbane Strikers

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Brisbane Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw

67%

Eastern Suburbs or Brisbane Strikers

80%

Draw or Brisbane Strikers

53%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

28%

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

91%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

68%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

42%

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

86%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

59%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

59%

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.92 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more

47%

level

20%

Brisbane Strikers scores more

33%

Eastern Suburbs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff