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Eastern Suburbs vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland NPL 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
9/11/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 24Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eastern Suburbs40%
×Draw21%
Brisbane Strikers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
2.04
Brisbane Strikers
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 40 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.86
Brisbane Strikers
1.88

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.12
Brisbane Strikers
2.23

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
61%
Eastern Suburbs or Brisbane Strikers
79%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
60%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
22%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
87%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
60%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
33%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
59%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
51%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.12 · 81 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.86 + Brisbane Strikers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Brisbane Strikers attack 1.88 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
40%
level
21%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
39%

Eastern Suburbs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Eastern Suburbs 1–0 Brisbane Strikers

Eastern Suburbs beat Brisbane Strikers 1-0 in Queensland NPL on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Heath Park in Brisbane.