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Eastern Lions vs Bulleen Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
8/15/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 25Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eastern Lions41%
×Draw24%
Bulleen Lions34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Lions
1.59
Bulleen Lions
1.43

Eastern Lions creates 11% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 66 away

creates per match

Eastern Lions
1.49
Bulleen Lions
1.24

allows per match

Eastern Lions
1.62
Bulleen Lions
1.70

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par
Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Bulleen Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw
66%
Eastern Lions or Bulleen Lions
76%
Draw or Bulleen Lions
59%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+
21%
Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals
80%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
47%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
21%
Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
76%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
42%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
55%
Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eastern Lions scores more
41%
level
24%
Bulleen Lions scores more
34%

Eastern Lions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eastern Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastern Lions vs Bulleen Lions

Eastern Lions beat Bulleen Lions 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Gardiners Creek Reserve in Melbourne.