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Bulleen Lions vs Eastern Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
5/5/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bulleen Lions55%
×Draw21%
Eastern Lions24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulleen Lions
2.04
Eastern Lions
1.29

Bulleen Lions creates 58% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bulleen Lions
1.97
Eastern Lions
1.21

allows per match

Bulleen Lions
1.37
Eastern Lions
2.10

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par
Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Eastern Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw
76%
Bulleen Lions or Eastern Lions
79%
Draw or Eastern Lions
45%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
32%
Eastern Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
87%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
60%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
33%
Eastern Lions 1+ goals
72%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
37%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
69%
Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Eastern Lions defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.04

Eastern Lions attack 1.21 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more
55%
level
21%
Eastern Lions scores more
24%

Bulleen Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bulleen Lions 0–2 Eastern Lions

Eastern Lions beat Bulleen Lions 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at David Barro Stadium in Melbourne.