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Eastern Lions vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
5/30/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 16Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eastern Lions36%
×Draw24%
Bentleigh Greens39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Lions
1.46
Bentleigh Greens
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

creates per match

Eastern Lions
1.49
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

allows per match

Eastern Lions
1.62
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw
61%
Eastern Lions or Bentleigh Greens
76%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
64%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+
17%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals
77%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
43%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
18%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
78%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
45%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
48%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eastern Lions scores more
36%
level
24%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
39%

Bentleigh Greens at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastern Lions vs Bentleigh Greens

Bentleigh Greens beat Eastern Lions 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at Gardiners Creek Reserve in Melbourne.