Bentleigh Greens 3–0 Eastern Lions: Result & Stats

Bentleigh Greens

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eastern Lions

7/8/2022

Victoria NPL · Round 21Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens54%

×Draw22%

Eastern Lions24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bentleigh GreensExpected goals in this matchEastern Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.24

Bentleigh Greens

1.94

Eastern Lions

1.24

Bentleigh Greens creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.88

1.60

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

Eastern Lions

0.88

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.60

Eastern Lions

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Eastern Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw

76%

Bentleigh Greens or Eastern Lions

78%

Draw or Eastern Lions

46%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

31%

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

86%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

58%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

30%

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

71%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

35%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

69%

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Eastern Lions defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eastern Lions attack 0.88 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more

54%

level

22%

Eastern Lions scores more

24%

Bentleigh Greens at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff