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Eastern Lions vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Avondale
Avondale
7/11/2021Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 20Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Eastern Lions14%
×Draw19%
Avondale68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Lions
0.89
Avondale
2.24

Avondale creates 152% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 87 away

creates per match

Eastern Lions
0.61
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

Eastern Lions
2.26
Avondale
1.17

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw
32%
Eastern Lions or Avondale
81%
Draw or Avondale
86%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+
4%
Avondale wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals
59%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
22%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
6%
Avondale 1+ goals
89%
Avondale 2+ goals
65%
Avondale 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
17%
Avondale (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.26 · 23 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 0.61 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Avondale attack 2.22 + Eastern Lions defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eastern Lions scores more
14%
level
19%
Avondale scores more
68%

Avondale at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Eastern Lions 0–4 Avondale

Avondale beat Eastern Lions 4-0 in Victoria NPL on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Gardiners Creek Reserve in Melbourne.