Avondale 5–1 Eastern Lions: Result & Stats

Avondale

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eastern Lions

6/25/2022

Victoria NPL · Round 19Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Avondale72%

×Draw16%

Eastern Lions12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchEastern Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.95

Avondale

2.58

Eastern Lions

0.95

Avondale creates 172% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 26 away

2.71

creates per match

0.88

1.02

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Avondale

2.71

Eastern Lions

0.88

allows per match

Avondale

1.02

Eastern Lions

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Eastern Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

88%

Avondale or Eastern Lions

84%

Draw or Eastern Lions

28%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

50%

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

92%

Avondale 2+ goals

72%

Avondale 3+ goals

47%

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

61%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

25%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

86%

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Eastern Lions defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.58

Eastern Lions attack 0.88 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Avondale scores more

72%

level

16%

Eastern Lions scores more

12%

Avondale at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff