Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

East Kilbride vs Dunfermline — League Cup 2025

East Kilbride
East Kilbride
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
C. Elliott 75'
F. Gray 53'
L. McGrattan 24'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageK-Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

East Kilbride32%
×Draw20%
Dunfermline48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Kilbride
1.83
Dunfermline
2.25

Dunfermline creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

East Kilbride
2.00
Dunfermline
1.50

allows per match

East Kilbride
3.00
Dunfermline
1.67

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw
52%
East Kilbride or Dunfermline
80%
Draw or Dunfermline
68%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+
16%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals
84%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
54%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
28%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
89%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
65%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)
40%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 2.00 + Dunfermline defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dunfermline attack 1.50 + East Kilbride defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

East Kilbride scores more
32%
level
20%
Dunfermline scores more
48%

Dunfermline at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
L. McGrattan← J. Balde
24'
L. McGrattan↳ M. Zaid
36'
C. McGuffie
44'
J. Tod
45+1'
O. Calder← L. McGrattan
53'
F. Gray↳ S. Kelly
60'
L. Robinson← J. Tod
60'
A. Amade← C. Gilmour
61'
Z. Rudden← C. Morrison
75'
C. Elliott↳ S. Kelly
78'
A. Spalding← C. Elliott
83'
E. McLeod← K. Bray
84'
J. Cooper← A. Tod

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: East Kilbride 3–0 Dunfermline

East Kilbride beat Dunfermline 3-0 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: L. McGrattan (24'), F. Gray (53'), C. Elliott (75').

The match was played at K-Park Training Academy in East Kilbride.