Dunfermline 4–0 East Kilbride: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

East Kilbride

K. Nisbet 50', 3'

T. Beadling 16'

J. Coley 7'

7/27/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 8East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dunfermline60%

×Draw18%

East Kilbride22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchEast Kilbride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.67

Dunfermline

2.75

East Kilbride

1.67

Dunfermline creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.50

0.83

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Dunfermline

3.00

East Kilbride

2.50

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.83

East Kilbride

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

East Kilbride →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

78%

Dunfermline or East Kilbride

82%

Draw or East Kilbride

40%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

40%

East Kilbride wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

93%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

75%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

51%

East Kilbride 1+ goals

81%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

50%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

73%

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 3.00 + East Kilbride defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

East Kilbride attack 2.50 + Dunfermline defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunfermline scores more

60%

level

18%

East Kilbride scores more

22%

Dunfermline at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

K. Nisbet↳ R. Dow

16'

50'

63'

63'

R. Kavanagh← S. Winter

67'

L. McCann← R. Dow

67'

C. Malcolm← D. Carmichael

73'

S. Stevenson← C. Reid

74'

P. Allan← P. Paton

Dunfermline

East

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2A

▼

Nisbet

Manager: S. Crawford

63'▲A. Ryan←▼K. Nisbet

67'▲L. McCann←▼R. Dow

74'▲P. Allan←▼P. Paton

Dunfermline substitutes

15Ryan17McCann18Allan20Gill14Todd16Edwards12Morrison

Manager: S. Malcolm

63'▲R. Kavanagh←▼S. Winter

67'▲C. Malcolm←▼D. Carmichael

73'▲S. Stevenson←▼C. Reid

East Kilbride substitutes

15Kavanagh17Malcolm12Stevenson14Weir16MacPherson25McGinley