East Fife 4–0 Stranraer: Result & Stats

East Fife

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stranraer

L. Newton 90+1'

C. McManus 57'

N. Austin 39'

K. Millar 18'

10/21/2023

League Two · Round 10MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

East Fife48%

×Draw25%

Stranraer28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

East Fife

1.61

Stranraer

1.17

East Fife creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 103 away

1.69

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

East Fife

1.69

Stranraer

1.14

allows per match

East Fife

1.21

Stranraer

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

72%

East Fife or Stranraer

75%

Draw or Stranraer

52%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

25%

Stranraer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

80%

East Fife 2+ goals

48%

East Fife 3+ goals

22%

Stranraer 1+ goals

69%

Stranraer 2+ goals

33%

Stranraer 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

63%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.69 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stranraer attack 1.14 + East Fife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

East Fife scores more

48%

level

25%

Stranraer scores more

28%

East Fife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Millar↳ J. Healy

39'

N. Austin↳ S. Docherty

47'

D. Forrest

49'

C. McManus

57'

C. McManus↳ S. Shepherd

62'

63'

70'

70'

71'

71'

K. Mitchell← S. Shepherd

78'

A. Trouten

83'

R. Schiavone← N. Austin

83'

C. Hambrook← A. Trouten

85'

O. McDonald← C. Ross

90+1'

L. Newton

East

Stranraer

13

2

22

4

5

▼

Ross

20

Sneddon

23

▼

Grant

16

Forrest

11

▼

Dolan

9

▼

24

1

22

17

A

Docherty

23

Comerford

4

⚽

▼

Millar

6

⚽

McManus

11

A

▼

Healy

3

⚽

Newton

10

▼

Trouten

14

⚽

▼

Austin

9

A

▼

Shepherd

Manager: G. McDonald

63'▲B. Walls←▼K. Millar

71'▲G. Nicol←▼J. Healy

71'▲K. Mitchell←▼S. Shepherd

83'▲R. Schiavone←▼N. Austin

83'▲C. Hambrook←▼A. Trouten

East Fife substitutes

18Walls12Nicol16Mitchell7Schiavone20Hambrook21Beveridge2Murdoch

62'▲D. Hawkshaw←▼T. Orr

70'▲J. Walker←▼M. Grant

70'▲B. Armour←▼J. Dolan

85'▲O. McDonald←▼C. Ross

Stranraer substitutes

14Hawkshaw10Walker7Armour15McDonald21Strachan3Williamson1McDonald