East Fife 2–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

East Fife

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cowdenbeath

10/6/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

East Fife65%

×Draw20%

Cowdenbeath14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East FifeExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.83

East Fife

2.04

Cowdenbeath

0.83

East Fife creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.87

creates per match

0.40

1.27

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

East Fife

1.87

Cowdenbeath

0.40

allows per match

East Fife

1.27

Cowdenbeath

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

East Fife or draw

86%

East Fife or Cowdenbeath

80%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

35%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+

41%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals

87%

East Fife 2+ goals

60%

East Fife 3+ goals

33%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

56%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

20%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)

82%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.87 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cowdenbeath attack 0.40 + East Fife defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

East Fife scores more

65%

level

20%

Cowdenbeath scores more

14%

East Fife at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff