Cowdenbeath 2–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

East Fife

7/13/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cowdenbeath51%

×Draw25%

East Fife24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.03

Cowdenbeath

1.61

East Fife

1.03

Cowdenbeath creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.73

creates per match

0.42

1.64

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

0.73

East Fife

0.42

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.64

East Fife

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

East Fife →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

76%

Cowdenbeath or East Fife

75%

Draw or East Fife

49%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

27%

East Fife wins by 2+

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

80%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

48%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

22%

East Fife 1+ goals

64%

East Fife 2+ goals

28%

East Fife 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

68%

East Fife (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.73 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

East Fife attack 0.42 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

51%

level

25%

East Fife scores more

24%

Cowdenbeath at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cowdenbeath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff