East Atlanta 1–4 Tennessee: Result & Stats

East Atlanta

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Tennessee

6/22/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 12RYSA Soccerplex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

East Atlanta25%

×Draw24%

Tennessee52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East AtlantaExpected goals in this matchTennessee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.72

East Atlanta

1.11

Tennessee

1.72

Tennessee creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

2.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

East Atlanta

1.00

Tennessee

1.15

allows per match

East Atlanta

2.29

Tennessee

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par

Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

Tennessee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw

48%

East Atlanta or Tennessee

76%

Draw or Tennessee

75%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+

9%

Tennessee wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals

67%

East Atlanta 2+ goals

30%

East Atlanta 3+ goals

10%

Tennessee 1+ goals

82%

Tennessee 2+ goals

51%

Tennessee 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)

32%

Tennessee (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.00 + Tennessee defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tennessee attack 1.15 + East Atlanta defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

East Atlanta scores more

25%

level

24%

Tennessee scores more

52%

Tennessee at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff