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East Atlanta vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

East Atlanta
East Atlanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
6/17/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 10RYSA Soccerplex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

East Atlanta37%
×Draw23%
Dalton Red Wolves40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Atlanta
1.63
Dalton Red Wolves
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

East Atlanta
1.39
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

East Atlanta
2.08
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw
60%
East Atlanta or Dalton Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
63%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+
18%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals
80%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
48%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
22%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
82%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
50%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)
48%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.39 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + East Atlanta defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

East Atlanta scores more
37%
level
23%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
40%

Dalton Red Wolves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dalton Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: East Atlanta 1–0 Dalton Red Wolves

East Atlanta beat Dalton Red Wolves 1-0 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at RYSA Soccerplex Field 1 in Conyers, Georgia.