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Dalton Red Wolves vs East Atlanta — USL League Two 2018

Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
East Atlanta
East Atlanta
7/15/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 19Dalton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves49%
×Draw23%
East Atlanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalton Red Wolves
1.86
East Atlanta
1.36

Dalton Red Wolves creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
East Atlanta
1.26

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
East Atlanta
2.26

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par
East Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

East Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw
72%
Dalton Red Wolves or East Atlanta
77%
Draw or East Atlanta
51%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
27%
East Atlanta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
84%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
55%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
28%
East Atlanta 1+ goals
74%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
39%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
64%
East Atlanta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

East Atlanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + East Atlanta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.86

East Atlanta attack 1.26 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more
49%
level
23%
East Atlanta scores more
28%

Dalton Red Wolves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dalton Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Dalton Red Wolves 5–1 East Atlanta

Dalton Red Wolves beat East Atlanta 5-1 in USL League Two on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Dalton Stadium in Dalton, Georgia.