Džiugas Telšiai 3–3 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Panevėžys

C. Bella 80'

L. Estevez Fernandez 57'

L. Ankudinovas 6'

J. Sarpong 75'

E. Veliulis 44'

L. Klimavičius 31'

7/27/2024

A Lyga · Round 24Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai35%

×Draw26%

Panevėžys39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.34

Džiugas Telšiai

1.25

Panevėžys

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 125 away

1.07

creates per match

1.29

1.39

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

Panevėžys

1.29

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.39

Panevėžys

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

61%

Džiugas Telšiai or Panevėžys

74%

Draw or Panevėžys

65%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

15%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

71%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

36%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

13%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

74%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

39%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

47%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

35%

level

26%

Panevėžys scores more

39%

Panevėžys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

22'

31'

42'

44'

46'

J. Čađenović← Lucas de Vega

52'

E. Gasiunas

57'

L. Estevez Fernandez

61'

Joaquim Domingos← D. Aleksa

61'

M. Mikulenas← E. Gasiūnas

61'

C. Bella← N. Noordanus

67'

J. Sarpong← F. Palacios

74'

D. Vinckus← H. Yamada

75'

J. Sarpong

77'

N. Gorobsov

80'

C. Bella

81'

M. Beneta← R. Rasimavičius

83'

N. Lukšys← E. Veliulis

88'

D. Kubilinskas← L. Ankudinovas

Džiugas

Panevėžys

22

Tîmbur

2

⚽

Klimaviči

72

Mazáň

15

Cacutalua

32

▼

Rasimavič

5

Gorobsov

7

⚽

▼

Veliulis

21

Dieng

31

▼

Palacios

10

▼

36

97

24

33

⚽

▼

Ankudinov

3

Pushkarov

29

Sané

30

▼

Aleksa

6

Dombrausk

18

▼

Gasiūnas

11

⚽

Fernandez

27

▼

Yamada

19

▼

Noordanus

Manager: A. Lipskis

61'▲Joaquim Domingos←▼D. Aleksa

61'▲M. Mikulenas←▼E. Gasiūnas

61'▲C. Bella←▼N. Noordanus

74'▲D. Vinckus←▼H. Yamada

88'▲D. Kubilinskas←▼L. Ankudinovas

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

5Domingos9Mikulenas20Bella37Vinckus8Kubilinskas1Paukštė10Brazão17Bagužas23Cissé

Manager: S. Vreven

46'▲J. Čađenović←▼Lucas de Vega

67'▲J. Sarpong←▼F. Palacios

81'▲M. Beneta←▼R. Rasimavičius

83'▲N. Lukšys←▼E. Veliulis

Panevėžys substitutes

20Čađenović23Sarpong29Beneta17Lukšys1Černiauskas4Dubra28Gussiås97Karvatskyi