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Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys — A Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
3/2/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 1Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai34%
×Draw26%
Panevėžys39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 127 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.07
Panevėžys
1.29

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.41
Panevėžys
1.43

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
61%
Džiugas Telšiai or Panevėžys
74%
Draw or Panevėžys
66%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
15%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
71%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
36%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
13%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
74%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
39%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
47%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
34%
level
26%
Panevėžys scores more
39%

Panevėžys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 Panevėžys

Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys drew 0-0 in A Lyga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Telšiai.