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Džiugas Telšiai vs Atmosfera — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
2 – 0
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
D. Arlauskis 90+4', 67'
6/19/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai55%
×Draw22%
Atmosfera23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.92
Atmosfera
1.15

Džiugas Telšiai creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.04
Atmosfera
1.42

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.88
Atmosfera
1.79

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Atmosfera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
77%
Džiugas Telšiai or Atmosfera
78%
Draw or Atmosfera
45%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
32%
Atmosfera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
85%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
57%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
30%
Atmosfera 1+ goals
68%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
32%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
71%
Atmosfera (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Atmosfera defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Atmosfera attack 1.42 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
55%
level
22%
Atmosfera scores more
23%

Džiugas Telšiai at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
D. Arlauskis
90+4'
D. Arlauskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 2–0 Atmosfera

Džiugas Telšiai beat Atmosfera 2-0 in 1 Lyga on June 19, 2020.

Goals: D. Arlauskis (67', 90+4').

The match was played at Telšių centrinis stadionas in Telšiai.