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Atmosfera vs Džiugas Telšiai — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
0 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
A. Lipskis 81' (pen)
8/2/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atmosfera26%
×Draw23%
Džiugas Telšiai51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.85

Džiugas Telšiai creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.43
Džiugas Telšiai
1.67

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.03
Džiugas Telšiai
1.07

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
49%
Atmosfera or Džiugas Telšiai
77%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
74%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
11%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
71%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
36%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
13%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
84%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
55%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
34%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.03 · 87 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.43 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Atmosfera defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atmosfera scores more
26%
level
23%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
51%

Džiugas Telšiai at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
A. LipskisPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Atmosfera 0–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Atmosfera 1-0 in 1 Lyga on August 2, 2019.

Goals: A. Lipskis (81' pen).

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas (Mažeikiai).