Dynamos 0–0 Black Rhinos: Result & Stats

Dynamos

FT

0 – 0

Black Rhinos

11/17/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 31Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dynamos44%

×Draw34%

Black Rhinos22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamosExpected goals in this matchBlack Rhinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.62

Dynamos

1.01

Black Rhinos

0.62

Dynamos creates 63% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.57

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Dynamos

1.00

Black Rhinos

0.67

allows per match

Dynamos

0.57

Black Rhinos

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamos+0.00on par

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamos ↓

Black Rhinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Dynamos or draw

78%

Dynamos or Black Rhinos

66%

Draw or Black Rhinos

56%

Winning margin

Dynamos wins by 2+

17%

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dynamos 1+ goals

64%

Dynamos 2+ goals

27%

Dynamos 3+ goals

8%

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

46%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

13%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dynamos (draw refunded)

67%

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 96 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamos attack 1.00 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Dynamos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamos scores more

44%

level

34%

Black Rhinos scores more

22%

Dynamos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff