Black Rhinos 1–2 Dynamos: Result & Stats

Black Rhinos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamos

7/2/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Black Rhinos34%

×Draw33%

Dynamos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black RhinosExpected goals in this matchDynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.90

Black Rhinos

0.92

Dynamos

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

1.06

creates per match

0.91

0.88

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Black Rhinos

1.06

Dynamos

0.91

allows per match

Black Rhinos

0.88

Dynamos

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rhinos ↓

Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Black Rhinos or draw

67%

Black Rhinos or Dynamos

67%

Draw or Dynamos

66%

Winning margin

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

12%

Dynamos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

60%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

23%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

7%

Dynamos 1+ goals

59%

Dynamos 2+ goals

23%

Dynamos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

51%

Dynamos (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rhinos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Dynamos away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rhinos attack 1.06 + Dynamos defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Dynamos attack 0.91 + Black Rhinos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Black Rhinos scores more

34%

level

33%

Dynamos scores more

33%

Black Rhinos at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Black Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff