Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov: Preview & Prediction

Dynamo

Preview

11:00

Krylia Sovetov

7/25/2026

Premier League · Round 1VTB Arena

Big match

61%

Dynamo

model favours

61%21%18%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo61%

×Draw21%

Krylia Sovetov18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.05

Dynamo

2.08

Krylia Sovetov

1.05

Dynamo creates 98% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

2.16

creates per match

0.82

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dynamo

2.16

Krylia Sovetov

0.82

allows per match

Dynamo

1.29

Krylia Sovetov

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

82%

Dynamo or Krylia Sovetov

79%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

39%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

37%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

87%

Dynamo 2+ goals

61%

Dynamo 3+ goals

34%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

65%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

28%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

77%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Krylia Sovetov attack 0.82 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo scores more

61%

level

21%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

18%

Dynamo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Dynamo have won 3 in a row
Dynamo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Krylia Sovetov win just 13% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
Dynamo outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.3 expected)