Dynamo 5–1 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats | Cup

Dynamo

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Krylia Sovetov

D. Makarov 83'

Y. Gladyshev 57'

V. Okishor 45+1', 21'

D. Bokov 9'

Fernando Costanza 42' (pen)

8/28/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 3VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dynamo53%

×Draw23%

Krylia Sovetov25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.23

Dynamo

1.89

Krylia Sovetov

1.23

Dynamo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

2.05

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Dynamo

2.05

Krylia Sovetov

1.33

allows per match

Dynamo

1.14

Krylia Sovetov

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

75%

Dynamo or Krylia Sovetov

77%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

47%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

30%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

85%

Dynamo 2+ goals

56%

Dynamo 3+ goals

29%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

71%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

35%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

68%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.05 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.89

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.33 + Dynamo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dynamo scores more

53%

level

23%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

25%

Dynamo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

D. Bokov

21'

V. Okishor

32'

S. Babkin← D. Yakuba

42'

Fernando CostanzaPenalty

45+1'

V. Okishor

46'

Bitello← L. Gagnidze

46'

Y. Gladyshev← I. Lepskiy

46'

T. Galdames← Fernando Costanza

46'

F. Orozco← V. Shitov

56'

R. Fernandez

57'

Y. Gladyshev

60'

B. Garré← I. Oleynikov

63'

J. Carrascal← V. Okishor

76'

E. Maouhoub← D. Bokov

77'

E. MaouhoubGoal Disallowed - offside

82'

I. Bober← U. Babaev

83'

D. Makarov

84'

E. Dasa← R. Fernández

Dynamo

Krylia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Okishor

⚽

▼

Bokov

Manager: M. Lička

46'▲Bitello←▼L. Gagnidze

46'▲Y. Gladyshev←▼I. Lepskiy

63'▲J. Carrascal←▼V. Okishor

76'▲E. Maouhoub←▼D. Bokov

84'▲E. Dasa←▼R. Fernández

Dynamo substitutes

10Bitello91Gladyshev8Carrascal14Maouhoub2Dasa41Nazarenko47Kudravets52Smelov70Tyukavin76Kuptsov30Aleksandrov

Manager: I. Osinkin

32'▲S. Babkin←▼D. Yakuba

46'▲T. Galdames←▼Fernando Costanza

46'▲F. Orozco←▼V. Shitov

60'▲B. Garré←▼I. Oleynikov

82'▲I. Bober←▼U. Babaev

Krylia Sovetov substitutes

6Babkin3Galdames32Orozco10Garré76Bober4Soldatenkov24Evgenyev30Pesyakov33Lysov92Popov61Beltyukov

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 5-1 in Cup on August 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Bokov (9'), V. Okishor (21', 45+1'), Fernando Costanza (42' pen), Y. Gladyshev (57'), D. Makarov (83').

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.

Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov — Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov