Dynamo 0–0 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Dynamo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moscow

4/16/2025

Cup · Premier League Path - Semi-finalsVTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dynamo45%

×Draw25%

CSKA Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Dynamo

1.54

CSKA Moscow

1.21

Dynamo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.71

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dynamo

1.71

CSKA Moscow

1.13

allows per match

Dynamo

1.29

CSKA Moscow

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

70%

Dynamo or CSKA Moscow

75%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

55%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

23%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

79%

Dynamo 2+ goals

45%

Dynamo 3+ goals

20%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

70%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

34%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

60%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 1.71 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

CSKA Moscow attack 1.13 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo scores more

45%

level

25%

CSKA Moscow scores more

30%

Dynamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Bistrović← A. Fayzullaev

46'

R. Zhemaletdinov← M. Pjanić

58'

Daniil Fomin

60'

Sekou Koita

63'

K. Glebov← S. Koïta

75'

T. Musaev← S. Guarirapa

78'

N. Ngamaleu← Bitello

83'

Yaroslav Gladyshev

88'

D. Laxalt← D. Fomin

88'

V. Okishor← L. Chávez

Statistics

DynamoCSKA

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0