CSKA Moscow 3–1 Dynamo: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo

I. Oblyakov 90+5' (pen)

S. Guarirapa 77'

D. Skopintsev 15' (OG)

J. Carrascal 24' (pen)

4/6/2025

Premier League · Round 23VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CSKA Moscow48%

×Draw25%

Dynamo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.16

CSKA Moscow

1.62

Dynamo

1.16

CSKA Moscow creates 40% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.87

creates per match

1.41

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

Dynamo

1.41

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

Dynamo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

73%

CSKA Moscow or Dynamo

75%

Draw or Dynamo

52%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

25%

Dynamo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

80%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

48%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

22%

Dynamo 1+ goals

69%

Dynamo 2+ goals

32%

Dynamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

64%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Dynamo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dynamo attack 1.41 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

48%

level

25%

Dynamo scores more

27%

CSKA Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Pjanić

CSKA Moscow · M

7.5

Match Events

3'

Dmitri Skopintsev

15'

D. SkopintsevOwn goal

24'

J. CarrascalPenalty

34'

Abbosbek Fayzullaev

46'

S. Guarirapa← T. Musaev

46'

D. Laxalt← D. Skopintsev

60'

Matvey Kislyak

66'

K. Glebov← S. Koïta

66'

K. Bistrović← A. Fayzullaev

70'

Daniil Fomin

70'

E. Maouhoub← D. Fomin

74'

Igor Diveev

75'

Luis Chávez

75'

R. Zhemaletdinov← M. Pjanić

77'

S. Guarirapa↳ K. Glebov

78'

Saúl Guarirapa

82'

Arthur Gomes← Y. Gladyshev

82'

N. Ngamaleu← Bitello

90+3'

Kirill GlebovPenalty confirmed

90+5'

I. OblyakovPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKADynamo

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots9

3Corners6

17Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target4

6Off Target4

0Blocked1

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

364Total Passes417

286Accurate Passes328

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3