Dynamo 1–2 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Dynamo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Moscow

J. Carrascal 55'

T. Musaev 89'

A. Fayzullaev 17'

10/6/2024

Premier League · Round 11VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Dynamo43%

×Draw25%

CSKA Moscow32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.28

Dynamo

1.52

CSKA Moscow

1.28

Dynamo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

1.88

creates per match

1.33

1.23

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dynamo

1.88

CSKA Moscow

1.33

allows per match

Dynamo

1.23

CSKA Moscow

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

68%

Dynamo or CSKA Moscow

75%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

57%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

21%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

78%

Dynamo 2+ goals

45%

Dynamo 3+ goals

20%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

37%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

57%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 1.88 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

CSKA Moscow attack 1.33 + Dynamo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo scores more

43%

level

25%

CSKA Moscow scores more

32%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Musaev

CSKA Moscow · F

7.9

Match Events

17'

A. Fayzullaev↳ I. Oblyakov

46'

N. Marichal← D. Skopintsev

46'

D. Fomin← Arthur Gomes

55'

J. Carrascal

62'

Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu

64'

A. Kutitskiy← E. Dasa

73'

Matvey Kislyak

74'

E. Maouhoub← J. Carrascal

75'

M. Pjanić← I. Oblyakov

75'

M. Gajić← D. Krugovoy

75'

T. Musaev← A. Fayzullaev

79'

K. Bistrović← M. Kislyak

89'

Tamerlan Musaev

89'

T. Musaev↳ S. Zdjelar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoCSKA

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots12

6Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target7

2Off Target4

6Blocked1

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

557Total Passes416

465Accurate Passes339

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1