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Dynamo vs Baltika — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
Preview
15:00
Baltika
Baltika
4/3/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22VTB Arena
42%
Dynamo
model favours
42%24%34%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo42%
×Draw24%
Baltika34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.57
Baltika
1.39

Dynamo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.26
Baltika
1.25

allows per match

Dynamo
1.52
Baltika
0.88

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
66%
Dynamo or Baltika
76%
Draw or Baltika
58%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
21%
Baltika wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo 2+ goals
46%
Dynamo 3+ goals
21%
Baltika 1+ goals
75%
Baltika 2+ goals
40%
Baltika 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
55%
Baltika (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.26 + Baltika defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baltika attack 1.25 + Dynamo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dynamo scores more
42%
level
24%
Baltika scores more
34%

Dynamo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Baltika have won 4 in a row
  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running
  • Dynamo win just 21% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dynamo
WWW
Baltika
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dynamo face Baltika (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Dynamo hosting Baltika. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dynamo host Baltika at VTB Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.