Dynamo 1–1 Baltika: Result & Stats | Premier League

Dynamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Baltika

J. Caceres 48'

B. Gil 12'

7/18/2025

Premier League · Round 1VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo43%

×Draw25%

Baltika32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Dynamo

1.52

Baltika

1.27

Dynamo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

2.16

creates per match

1.25

1.29

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Dynamo

2.16

Baltika

1.25

allows per match

Dynamo

1.29

Baltika

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

68%

Dynamo or Baltika

75%

Draw or Baltika

57%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

21%

Baltika wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

78%

Dynamo 2+ goals

45%

Dynamo 3+ goals

20%

Baltika 1+ goals

72%

Baltika 2+ goals

36%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

58%

Baltika (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Baltika defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Baltika attack 1.25 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo scores more

43%

level

25%

Baltika scores more

32%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Bitello

Dynamo · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

B. Gil↳ V. Saus

31'

Daniil Fomin

40'

Andrey Mendel

45+5'

Sergey Varatynov

46'

N. Marichal← R. Fernandez

48'

J. Caceres↳ Bitello

52'

E. Civic← N. Titkov

52'

M. Petrov← S. Pryakhin

58'

Nathan Gassama

61'

D. Makarov← I. Sergeev

61'

U. Babaev← N. Moumi Ngamaleu

67'

A. Mourid← I. Petrov

67'

T. Yenne← B. Gil

82'

A. Filin← N. Gassama

90+1'

Ulvi Babaev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoBaltika

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots4

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.67

9Corners1

10Fouls23

Shots

17Total Shots4

3On Target3

7Off Target1

7Blocked0

7Inside Box3

10Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

402Total Passes230

295Accurate Passes132

73%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls23

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5