Baltika 2–3 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Moscow

K. Kaplenko 68'

Á. Henríquez 32'

M. Ngamaleu 90+9'

R. Fernández 90+3'

K. Tyukavin 3'

5/11/2024

Premier League · Round 28Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Baltika38%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Moscow35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.24

Baltika

1.30

Dinamo Moscow

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

1.50

creates per match

1.58

0.89

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Baltika

1.50

Dinamo Moscow

1.58

allows per match

Baltika

0.89

Dinamo Moscow

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

65%

Baltika or Dinamo Moscow

73%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

62%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

73%

Baltika 2+ goals

37%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

52%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.50 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.58 + Baltika defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baltika scores more

38%

level

27%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

35%

Baltika at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Ngamaleu

Dinamo Moscow · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

K. Tyukavin↳ M. Ngamaleu

32'

Á. Henríquez↳ D. Rybchinskiy

57'

Dmitri Skopintsev

66'

Bitello← L. Chávez

68'

K. Kaplenko↳ V. Lisakovich

71'

Kirill KaplenkoGoal confirmed

71'

Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu

74'

R. Fernández← D. Rybchinskiy

74'

M. Kuzmin← V. Lisakovich

78'

T. Avanesyan← Á. Henríquez

81'

Diego Laxalt

86'

Daniil Fomin

87'

S. Pryakhin← Alex

88'

A. Osipov← Y. Kovalev

88'

V. Grulev← J. Carrascal

90+3'

R. Fernández↳ D. Fomin

90+9'

M. Ngamaleu↳ K. Tyukavin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaltikaDinamo

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots19

3Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots19

2On Target7

7Off Target7

5Blocked5

8Inside Box14

6Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

481Total Passes524

366Accurate Passes402

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Premier League: Baltika 2–3 Dinamo Moscow

Dinamo Moscow beat Baltika 3-2 in Premier League on May 11, 2024.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (3'), Á. Henríquez (32'), K. Kaplenko (68'), R. Fernández (90+3'), M. Ngamaleu (90+9').

Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.

Baltika vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Baltika 2–3 Dinamo Moscow