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Dynamo Unacob vs Buffles — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
FT
0 – 1
Buffles
Buffles
4/12/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 26Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Dynamo Unacob31%
×Draw34%
Buffles35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Unacob
0.83
Buffles
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 115 away

creates per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.92
Buffles
0.96

allows per match

Dynamo Unacob
0.81
Buffles
0.74

finishing

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par
Buffles+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Unacob ↓

Buffles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dynamo Unacob or draw
65%
Dynamo Unacob or Buffles
66%
Draw or Buffles
69%

Winning margin

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
10%
Buffles wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
56%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
20%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
5%
Buffles 1+ goals
59%
Buffles 2+ goals
22%
Buffles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
47%
Buffles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Unacob at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Buffles away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.92 + Buffles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Buffles attack 0.96 + Dynamo Unacob defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dynamo Unacob scores more
31%
level
34%
Buffles scores more
35%

Buffles at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Unacob 0–1 Buffles

Buffles beat Dynamo Unacob 1-0 in Championnat National on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.