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Buffles vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
3 – 1
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
1/6/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 16Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Buffles53%
×Draw28%
Dynamo Unacob19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.38
Dynamo Unacob
0.70

Buffles creates 97% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 87 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.24
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
81%
Buffles or Dynamo Unacob
72%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
47%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
26%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
75%
Buffles 2+ goals
40%
Buffles 3+ goals
16%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
50%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
74%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 112 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.24 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Buffles scores more
53%
level
28%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
19%

Buffles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Buffles 3–1 Dynamo Unacob

Buffles beat Dynamo Unacob 3-1 in Championnat National on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.