Dynamo Makhachkala II 1–1 Dinamo Stavropol

Dynamo Makhachkala II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Stavropol

11/11/2023

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Trud Makhachkala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II27%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Stavropol47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Makhachkala IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.51

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.07

Dinamo Stavropol

1.51

Dinamo Stavropol creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 92 away

0.76

creates per match

1.22

1.80

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.76

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.80

Dinamo Stavropol

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw

53%

Dynamo Makhachkala II or Dinamo Stavropol

74%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

73%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

10%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

66%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

29%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

9%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

44%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

36%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

27%

level

26%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

47%

Dinamo Stavropol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff