Dinamo Stavropol 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala II

Dinamo Stavropol

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo Makhachkala II

5/31/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol58%

×Draw22%

Dynamo Makhachkala II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo StavropolExpected goals in this matchDynamo Makhachkala II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.96

Dinamo Stavropol

1.86

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.96

Dinamo Stavropol creates 94% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

0.65

1.26

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol

1.40

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.65

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol

1.26

Dynamo Makhachkala II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Dynamo Makhachkala II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw

81%

Dinamo Stavropol or Dynamo Makhachkala II

78%

Draw or Dynamo Makhachkala II

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

34%

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

28%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

62%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

25%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

75%

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.65 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

58%

level

22%

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

19%

Dinamo Stavropol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff