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Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Biolog
Biolog
11/4/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Trud Makhachkala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II29%
×Draw25%
Biolog46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.18
Biolog
1.55

Biolog creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.76
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.80
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw
54%
Dynamo Makhachkala II or Biolog
75%
Draw or Biolog
71%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
12%
Biolog wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
12%
Biolog 1+ goals
79%
Biolog 2+ goals
46%
Biolog 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
39%
Biolog (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Biolog attack 1.30 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
29%
level
25%
Biolog scores more
46%

Biolog at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dynamo Makhachkala II 4–0 Biolog

Dynamo Makhachkala II beat Biolog 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud Makhachkala in Makhachkala.