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Biolog vs Dynamo Makhachkala II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
10/19/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biolog59%
×Draw22%
Dynamo Makhachkala II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.98
Dynamo Makhachkala II
1.05

Biolog creates 89% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 51 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.65

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Dynamo Makhachkala II
2.33

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Dynamo Makhachkala II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
80%
Biolog or Dynamo Makhachkala II
78%
Draw or Dynamo Makhachkala II
41%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
35%
Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
86%
Biolog 2+ goals
59%
Biolog 3+ goals
31%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
65%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
28%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
75%
Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.65 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Biolog scores more
59%
level
22%
Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
20%

Biolog at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Biolog 3–1 Dynamo Makhachkala II

Biolog beat Dynamo Makhachkala II 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.