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Dynamo Kyiv vs Rukh Vynnyky — Premier League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
O. Karavaev 90+1', 59'
Sidcley 86'
3/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv61%
×Draw22%
Rukh Vynnyky16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.84
Rukh Vynnyky
0.83

Dynamo Kyiv creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.27
Rukh Vynnyky
0.92

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.75
Rukh Vynnyky
1.42

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.56scores less
Rukh Vynnyky-0.22scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
84%
Dynamo Kyiv or Rukh Vynnyky
78%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky
39%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
36%
Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
55%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
28%
Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
56%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
20%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
79%
Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 7 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.92 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
61%
level
22%
Rukh Vynnyky scores more
16%

Dynamo Kyiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Roman Karasyuk
19'
Andriy Boryachuk
27'
Sergiy Sydorchuk
46'
O. Karavaev← G. Rodrigues
46'
Y. Martynyuk← R. Karasyuk
46'
M. Kukharevych← A. Boryachuk
54'
Bogdan Boychuk
59'
O. Karavaev
60'
V. Shepelev← C. de Pena
68'
O. Sych← O. Prytula
73'
D. Harmash← V. Supryaha
81'
Sidcley← M. Shaparenko
84'
R. Lyakh← B. Boychuk
84'
D. Kondrakov← Y. Klymchuk
86'
Sidcley↳ V. Mykolenko
90+1'
O. Karavaev

Possession

64%Dynamo

Shots

13Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoRukh
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots1
6Corners3
11Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots1
5On Target1
8Off Target0
Passing
64%Possession36%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Rukh Vynnyky

Dynamo Kyiv beat Rukh Vynnyky 3-0 in Premier League on March 21, 2021.

Goals: O. Karavaev (59', 90+1'), Sidcley (86').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 1.

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.